Monday, November 8, 2010

Uniqueness of the Galaxy-Sun-Earth-Moon System for Life Support


I found this an interesting read. Puts into question many "naturalism of the gaps" ideas. I am truly amazed at the amazing complexity that we find around us. Complexity that points toward a Grand Designer.


  1. galaxy size (9) (p = 0.1)
    if too large: infusion of gas and stars would disturb sun's orbit and ignite deadly galactic eruptions
    if too small: infusion of gas would be insufficient to sustain star formation long enough for life to form
  2. galaxy type (7) (p = 0.1)
    if too elliptical: star formation would cease before sufficient heavy elements formed for life chemistry
    if too irregular: radiation exposure would be too severe (at times) and life-essential heavy elements would not form
  3. galaxy location (9) (p = 0.1)
    if too close to dense galaxy cluster: galaxy would be gravitationally unstable, hence unsuitable for life
    if too close to large galaxy(ies): same result
  4. supernovae eruptions (8) (p = 0.01)
    if too close: radiation would exterminate life
    if too far: too little "ash" would be available for rocky planets to form
    if too infrequent: same result
    if too frequent: radiation would exterminate life
    if too soon: too little "ash" would be available for rocky planets to form
    if too late: radiation would exterminate life
  5. white dwarf binaries (8) (p = 0.01)
    if too few: insufficient fluorine would exist for life chemistry
    if too many: orbits of life-supportable planets would be disrupted; life would be exterminated
    if too soon: insufficient fluorine would exist for life chemistry
    if too late: fluorine would arrive too late for life chemistry
  6. proximity of solar nebula to a supernova eruption (9)
    if farther: insufficient heavy elements would be attracted for life chemistry
    if closer: nebula would be blown apart
  7. timing of solar nebula formation relative to supernova eruption (9)
    if earlier: nebula would be blown apart
    if later: nebula would not attract enough heavy elements for life chemistry
  8. parent star distance from center of galaxy (9) (p = 0.2)
    if greater: insufficient heavy elements would be available for rocky planet formation
    if lesser: radiation would be too intense for life; stellar density would disturb planetary orbits, making life impossible
  9. parent star distance from closest spiral arm (9) (p = 0.1)
    if too small: radiation from other stars would be too intense and the stellar density would disturb orbits of life-supportable planets
    if too great: quantity of heavy elements would be insufficient for formation of life-supportable planets
  10. z-axis range of star's orbit (9) (p = 0.1)
    if too wide: exposure to harmful radiation from galactic core would be too great
  11. number of stars in the planetary system (10) (p = 0.2)
    if more than one: tidal interactions would make the orbits of life-supportable planets too unstable for life
    if fewer than one: no heat source would be available for life chemistry
  12. parent star birth date (9) (p = 0.2)
    if more recent: star burning would still be unstable; stellar system would contain too many heavy elements for life chemistry
    if less recent: stellar system would contain insufficient heavy elements for life chemistry
  13. parent star age (9) (p = 0.4)
    if older: star's luminosity would be too erratic for life support
    if younger: same result
  14. parent star mass (10) (p = 0.001)
    if greater: star's luminosity would be too erratic and star would burn up too quickly to support life
    if lesser: life support zone would be too narrow; rotation period of life-supportable planet would be too long; UV radiation would be insufficient for photosynthesis
  15. parent star metallicity (9) (p = 0.05)
    if too little: insufficient heavy elements for life chemistry would exist
    if too great: radioactivity would be too intense for life; heavy element concentrations would be poisonous to life
  16. parent star color (9) (p = 0.4)
    if redder: photosynthetic response would be insufficient to sustain life
    if bluer: same result
  17. H3+ production (23) (p = 0.1)
    if too little: simple molecules essential to planet formation and life chemistry would never form
    if too great: planets would form at the wrong time and place for life
  18. parent star luminosity (11) (p = 0.0001)
    if increases too soon: runaway green house effect would develop
    if increases too late: runaway glaciation would develop
  19. surface gravity (governs escape velocity) (12) (p = 0.001)
    if stronger: planet's atmosphere would retain too much ammonia and methane for life
    if weaker: planet's atmosphere would lose too much water for life
  20. distance from parent star (13) (p = 0.001)
    if greater: planet would be too cool for a stable water cycle
    if lesser: planet would be too warm for a stable water cycle
  21. inclination of orbit (22) (p = 0.5)
    if too great: temperature range on the planet's surface would be too extreme for life
  22. orbital eccentricity (9) (p = 0.3)
    if too great: seasonal temperature range would be too extreme for life
  23. axial tilt (9) (p = 0.3)
    if greater: surface temperature differences would be too great to sustain diverse life-forms
    if lesser: same result
  24. rate of change of axial tilt (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: climatic and temperature changes would be too extreme for life
  25. rotation period (11) (p = 0.1)
    if longer: diurnal temperature differences would be too great for life
    if shorter: atmospheric wind velocities would be too great for life
  26. rate of change in rotation period (14) (p = 0.05)
    if more rapid: change in day-to-night temperature variation would be too extreme for sustained life
    if less rapid: change in day-to-night temperature variation would be too slow for the development of advanced life
  27. planet's age (9) (p = 0.1)
    if too young: planet would rotate too rapidly for life
    if too old: planet would rotate too slowly for life
  28. magnetic field (20) (p = 0.01)
    if stronger: electromagnetic storms would be too severe
    if weaker: planetary surface and ozone layer would be inadequately protected from hard solar and stellar radiation
  29. thickness of crust (15) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: crust would rob atmosphere of oxygen needed for life
    if lesser: volcanic and tectonic activity would be destructive to life
  30. albedo (ratio of reflected light to total amount falling on surface) (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: runaway glaciation would develop
    if less: runaway greenhouse effect would develop
  31. asteroid and comet collision rates (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: ecosystem balances would be destroyed
    if less: crust would contain too little of certain life-essential elements
  32. mass of body colliding with primordial earth (9) (0 = 0.002)
    if greater: Earth's orbit and form would be too greatly disturbed for life
    if lesser: Earth's atmosphere would be too thick for life; moon would be too small to fulfill its life-sustaining role
  33. timing of above collision (9) (p = 0.05)
    if earlier: Earth's atmosphere would be too thick for life; moon would be too small to fulfill its life-sustaining role
    if later: Earth's atmosphere would be too thin for life; sun would be too luminous for subsequent life
  34. oxygen to nitrogen ratio in atmosphere (25) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: advanced life functions would proceed too rapidly
    if lesser: advanced life functions would proceed too slowly
  35. carbon dioxide level in atmosphere (21) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: runaway greenhouse effect would develop
    if less: plants would be unable to maintain efficient photosynthesis
  36. water vapor quantity in atmosphere (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: runaway greenhouse effect would develop
    if less: rainfall would be too meager for advanced land life
  37. atmospheric electric discharge rate (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: fires would be too frequent and widespread for life
    if less: too little nitrogen would be fixed in the atmosphere
  38. ozone quantity in atmosphere (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: surface temperatures would be too low for life; insufficient UV radiation for life
    if less: surface temperatures would be too high for life; UV radiation would be too intense for life
  39. oxygen quantity in atmosphere (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: plants and hydrocarbons would burn up too easily, destabilizing Earth's ecosystem
    if less: advanced animals would have too little to breathe
  40. seismic activity (16) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: life would be destroyed; ecosystem would be damaged
    if less: nutrients on ocean floors from river runoff would not be recycled to continents through tectonics; not enough carbon dioxide would be released from carbonate buildup
  41. volcanic activity (26)
    if lower: insufficient amounts of carbon dioxide and water vapor would be returned to the atmosphere; soil mineralization would be insufficient for life advanced life support
    if higher: advanced life would be destroyed; ecosystem would be damaged
  42. rate of decline in tectonic activity (26) (p = 0.1)
    if slower: crust conditions would be too unstable for advanced life
    if faster: crust nutrients would be inadequate for sustained land life
  43. rate of decline in volcanic activity (9) (p = 0.1)
    if slower: crust and surface conditions would be unsuitable for sustained land life
    if faster: crust and surface nutrients would be inadequate for sustained land life
  44. oceans-to-continents ratio (11) (p = 0.2)
    if greater: diversity and complexity of life-forms would be limited
    if smaller: same result
  45. rate of change in oceans-to-continents ratio (9) (p = 0.1)
    if smaller: land area would be insufficient for advanced life
    if greater: change would be too radical for advanced life to survive
  46. distribution of continents (10) (p = 0.3)
    if too much in the Southern Hemisphere: sea-salt aerosols would be insufficient to stabilize surface temperature and water cycle; increased seasonal differences would limit the available habitats for advanced land life
  47. frequency and extent of ice ages (9) (p = 0.1)
    if lesser: Earth's surface would lack fertile valleys essential for advanced life; mineral concentrations would be insufficient for advanced life.
    if greater: Earth would experience runaway freezing
  48. soil mineralization (9) (p = 0.1)
    if nutrient poorer: diversity and complexity of lifeforms would be limited
    if nutrient richer: same result
  49. gravitational interaction with a moon (17) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: tidal effects on the oceans, atmosphere, and rotational period would be too severe for life
    if lesser: orbital obliquity changes would cause climatic instabilities; movement of nutrients and life from the oceans to the continents and vice versa would be insufficient for life; magnetic field would be too weak to protect life from dangerous radiation
  50. Jupiter distance (18) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: Jupiter would be unable to protect Earth from frequent asteroid and comet collisions
    if lesser: Jupiter’s gravity would destabilize Earth's orbit
  51. Jupiter mass (19) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: Jupiter’s gravity would destabilize Earth's orbit 9
    if lesser: Jupiter would be unable to protect Earth from asteroid and comet collisions
  52. drift in (major) planet distances (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: Earth's orbit would be destabilized
    if less: asteroid and comet collisions would be too frequent for life
  53. major planet orbital eccentricities (18) (p = 0.05)
    if greater: Earth's orbit would be pulled out of life support zone
  54. major planet orbital instabilities (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: Earth's orbit would be pulled out of life support zone
  55. atmospheric pressure (9) (p = 0.1)
    if smaller: liquid water would evaporate too easily and condense too infrequently to support life
    if greater: inadequate liquid water evaporation to support life; insufficient sunlight would reach Earth's surface; insufficient UV radiation would reach Earth's surface
  56. atmospheric transparency (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: too broad a range of solar radiation wavelengths would reach Earth's surface for life support
    if lesser: too narrow a range of solar radiation wavelengths would reach Earth's surface for life support
  57. chlorine quantity in atmosphere (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: erosion rate and river, lake, and soil acidity would be too high for most life forms; metabolic rates would be too high for most life forms
    if lesser: erosion rate and river, lake, and soil acidity would be too low for most life forms; metabolic rates would be too low for most life forms
  58. iron quantity in oceans and soils (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: iron poisoning would destroy advanced life
    if lesser: food to support advanced life would be insufficient
    if very small: no life would be possible
  59. tropospheric ozone quantity (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: advanced animals would experience respiratory failure; crop yields would be inadequate for advanced life; ozone-sensitive species would be unable to survive
    if smaller: biochemical smog would hinder or destroy most life
  60. stratospheric ozone quantity (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: not enough LTV radiation would reach Earth's surface to produce food and life-essential vitamins
    if lesser: too much LTV radiation would reach Earth's surface, causing skin cancers and reducing plant growth
  61. mesospheric ozone quantity (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: circulation and chemistry of mesospheric gases would disturb relative abundance of life-essential gases in lower atmosphere
    if lesser: same result
  62. frequency and extent of forest and grass fires (24) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: advanced life would be impossible
    if lesser: accumulation of growth inhibitors, combined with insufficient nitrification, would make soil unsuitable for food production
  63. quantity of soil sulfur (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: plants would be destroyed by sulfur toxins, soil acidity, and disturbance of the nitrogen cycle
    if lesser: plants would die from protein deficiency
  64. biomass to comet-infall ratio (9) (p = 0.01)
    if greater: greenhouse gases would decline, triggering runaway freezing
    if lesser: greenhouse gases would accumulate, triggering runaway greenhouse effect
  65. quantity of sulfur in planet's core (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: solid inner core would never form, disrupting magnetic field
    if smaller: solid inner core formation would begin too soon, causing it to grow too rapidly and extensively, disrupting magnetic field
  66. quantity of sea-salt aerosols (9) (p = 0.1)
    if greater: too much and too rapid cloud formation over the oceans would disrupt the climate and atmospheric temperature balances
    if smaller: insufficient cloud formation; hence, inadequate water cycle; disrupts atmospheric temperature balances and hence the climate
  67. dependency factors (estimate 100,000,000,000)
  68. longevity requirements (estimate .00001)

Total Probability = 1:1099


2 comments:

  1. Pretty meaningless really. I think this would fall under the Fallacy of Big Numbers. I guess it's really the fine tuning arguement.

    What do you think the probability is that you would be born? Well 1:1 obviously. But for example start with Adam and Eve how many unlikely events would have had to occur to result in your exact dna being created?

    1:1 Is pretty much the odds that we would be on this planet, because it happened. We don't have multiple universes to get actual odds from.

    Andromedaswake covers this in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Dmc_a_E5w0 You'll love it, it has John Lennox in it.

    And I know you've heard Douglas Adam's Puddle analogy before as I just google checked and it's on the blog already.

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  2. Psalm 139:
    "13 For you created my inmost being;
    you knit me together in my mother’s womb.
    14 I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made;
    your works are wonderful,
    I know that full well.
    15 My frame was not hidden from you
    when I was made in the secret place,
    when I was woven together in the depths of the earth.
    16 Your eyes saw my unformed body;
    all the days ordained for me were written in your book
    before one of them came to be. "

    1:1 Is pretty much the odds that we would be on this planet, because it happened. We don't have multiple universes to get actual odds from.

    Yes I see your point, however you also miss the point. Even though we see something that has happened it does not mean it "just happened".
    An assembly of twigs in the corner of my house seems quite an organised thing and ideal for growing young. However, to accept that it just happened is presumptuous; it could be a too high a probability for it to just happen. So i assume a designer i.e. a mother bird.

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